CIPD study highlights past changes and future challenges
A number of ‘megatrends’ have changed the work of world beyond recognition over the last century, according to a new report from the CIPD.
But the institute questioned whether society was transforming faster than the workplace, and if businesses were prepared for the future trends that will shape the performance of organisations and economies during the next decade.
The megatrends report highlighted key changes that have shaped work in recent times:
- De-industrialisation: Since 1961, the proportion of the workforce employed in manufacturing has fallen from 36 per cent to 8 per cent, while the proportion employed in services has risen from 49 per cent to 81 per cent
- Demographic change: In the last 21 years, the proportion of the employed workforce aged 50 and over has grown from 21 per cent to 29 per cent, while the share of under-25s has dipped from 18 per cent to 12 per cent
- Increased female labour market participation: The UK’s workforce is now split almost evenly by gender, with women making up nearly 47 per cent of all in employment, compared with 37 per cent in 1971
- Educational attainment: There has been a reversal in the proportion of 16- to 64-year-olds with a degree compared to those with no qualifications. In 1993, 11 per cent had a degree compared to 26 per cent who had no qualifications, while in 2011, the figures were 24 per cent and 11 per cent respectively
- Decline of collectivism: Union membership has halved from 13 million in 1979 to less than 6.5 million in 2012
- Dramatic shifts in organisation size: In just 12 years, from 1998 to 2010, the proportion of private-sector employment accounted for by firms with more than 250 employees fell from 49 per cent to 40 per cent, while the proportion employed in the smallest firms (with one to four employees) doubled from 11 per cent to 22 per cent
- Technological change and globalisation: These factors have reduced the cost of transport and communication, allowed labour markets to become increasingly international, and extended the global reach of supply chains and customer bases.
Looking to the future, the report identified four new megatrends that could have similarly dramatic impacts on the world of work within the next decade – which will all be the subject of forthcoming CIPD research:
- Have we seen the end of the pay rise? A four-year fall in average real earnings is the most sustained period for at least half a century
- Has job turnover slowed down? A drop in voluntary exits from firms is a trend that pre-dates the recent recession and is in contrast to many years of discussion on the end of the “job for life”
- Are we working harder than ever? Employees report that they are working more intensively than ever before – driven as much by developments in technology as by recession-driven cost savings on employee numbers
- Are organisations losing the trust of their workers? Evidence has shown plummeting trust in organisations and their leaders, that has been exacerbated by recent scandals in sectors such as financial services and the NHS
Peter Cheese, the chief executive of the CIPD, said that the current pace of change in the workplace was unprecedented.
“The future of work, the changing nature of the workforce, and the organisation and culture of the workplace are among the biggest challenges facing organisations and their leaders, and if HR doesn’t provide the answers, they’ll find them elsewhere,” he explained.
“These are big challenges. If we get them right, we can deliver better work and working lives and stronger, more sustainable organisations. But to do that, as a profession, we have to develop our analytical skills, so we’re better at ‘seeing round corners’ and helping our organisations identify the next big questions and challenges.”