Retaining talent could be a problem as 'outside job opportunities likely to be attractive'
The human fall-out from the autumn statement could be as much as 100,000 public sector jobs over the course of this parliament.
The civil service is already at it’s smallest since the Second World War, while public sector now employs 17.2 per cent of the total workforce – its lowest share since records were first started in 1999.
But according to Sebastian Burnside, a senior economist at RBS, there are still large job losses to go – less in London, but more in local councils.
He said: “UK-wide, the public sector has seen job losses of 8 per cent over the last five years, but London has shed jobs at half that rate, losing just 4 per cent of its employees.
“Part of the reason for London getting off lightly is that all the job-shedding has been done by local government in the last four years.” Some however, suggest the scale of public sector job losses will be even greater – with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggesting public sector employment could fall by as much as 400,000 by the end of the decade.
According to some, this is already impacting morale. Julian McCrae, deputy director of the Institute for Government, said: “For a lot of the public sector, they’ve been worried about their jobs and pay restraint for the last five years.”
He added: “Now they’ve got another five years to go. Outside job opportunities are likely to be attractive.”
Newcastle Council Leader Nick Forbes said: “If we were a private sector company the government would intervene and set up a task force, but we’re not, and it won’t. We’re on our own."
Some 450,000 people have lost their job since the public sector workforce peaked at 5.7 million back in 2009.
According to the OBR, there will be just one million new jobs created to mop up public sector job losses – half the number that were created in the previous parliament.